COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 39 Post #966~ NZ COVID-19: Results for Poll~ When will half of NZ population be infected?

In a recent Poll on an NZ social media website we had these votes:


Here is the full question:



We assume that:

  1. There will be no Lockdowns.
  2. The dominant variant will be Omicron in the next six months.
  3. There will not be any significant improvement in vaccines in the next six months.
  4. We will round the New Zealand population to 5,000,000 people.
  5. There will be more than the one peak reached recently.
  6. The biggest peak will have no more than 50,000 new cases daily.
  7. The reduction in MIQ requirements will increase community infections from people coming from overseas.
  8. Case numbers (new cases and total number of cases) will be from daily reported cases.

Over the last couple of days case numbers reported have been decreasing:

03 March 2022

23,183 community cases; 503 in hospital; 7 in ICU

04 March 2022

22,527 community cases; 562 in hospital; 11 in ICU

05 March 2022

18,833 community cases; 597 in hospital; 10 in ICU; reminder to self-report RAT results

New daily case numbers have fallen almost 20% from the recent peak on 3 March.


There has now been a total of over 200,000 (206,827) cases in New Zealand.

We assume that the current peak of almost 25,000 new cases (23,183) reported on 3 March could double when case numbers rise again.

We have had an average in daily case numbers of 20,000 new cases per day recently.

If this continues over all of March we could have around 20,000 x 30 = 600,000 (620,000) cases this month.

If this were to continue for Aril, May, and June we could have 2.4 million cases from March to May.

This would make the total number of cases over 2.5 million from early 2020.

Half of the New Zealand population would be infected.

However the increase in the number of people double vaccinated and with booster shots will reduce this number.

Also as more people become infected and presumably have a higher level of immunity than before, the daily numbers must decrease.

It will take two more months for 50% of the population to be infected.

This would bring us to the end of July.

We conclude that 50% of the population will not be infected until August at the earliest.

We adopt August as the best answer in the Poll.

Case numbers would need to rise to over 50,000 new cases daily for many days for half the population to be infected before August.

Let A, B, C, D, E, F be the options in the order given in the poll.

The best choice is E.

We rank the choices as E, F, D, C, B, A with 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 mark given for the choices respectively.

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