![Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey](https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/animation_500_kcijq1n6.gif)
NZ new community cases topped 10,000 (10,290) yesterday (6 July) for the first time in months (since circa 21 April). See:
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10290-community-cases-522-hospitalisations-10-icu-12-deaths
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/10294-community-cases-524-hospitalisations-14-icu-18-deaths
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/13511-community-cases-30-deaths-past-two-days-500-hospitalisations-15-icu-today
Update: on 8 July, instead of 13,334 new cases, there were actually 9,318 (over 4,200 less). See:
https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/68319118
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/nz-covid-19-case-numbers-corrected-9318
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/13344-community-cases-587-hospitalisations-9-icu-23-deaths
On 27 June Auckland new community cases went up to 1,796 cases from 409 cases the day before, an increase of almost 4.4 times (4.391198). See:
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/5549-community-cases-383-hospitalisations-6-icu-11-deaths
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/4429-community-cases-332-hospitalisations-7-icu-6-deaths
At even half of this factor (2.2x), on average one person over a ten-day period could infect over 26 (26.4) other people. See the [Ro sub-menu in the] WELCOME menu at the top of this screen for my formula.
We consider the table below:
The bottom table means that 373 cases that could have been reported on 26 Jun may not have been reported (tested) until 27 Jun.
This may mean that the actual number of people newly infectious/symptomatic on 25 June could have been about double the number of cases reported positive on 26 June (783 vs 409). This means that around half of people that were newly infectious on 25 June may have been infecting others.
Note that the case numbers for a date were actually from up to midnight on the day before.
This means that the new case numbers for 26 Jun and 27 June were actually from a weekend.
The bottom table starts with the top table.
We use Goal Seek in Excel 2010 to set the sum in cell D28 to zero by changing cell C23 (initially 2.2).
We obtain a daily increase (factor) of r = 1.816879.
This using our formula would mean that one person on average could infect almost 15 others (14.88 others).
If the factor of 4.4 had continued, over 10 days one person could infect on average almost 150 others.
Using Goal Seek as above using a daily increase (factor) of r = 4.4 we obtain similar results:
Was a rugby match on 25 June and/or Matariki (first public holiday on Friday 24 June) perhaps responsible for the low number of new community cases reported on 26 June? See:
https://www.aucklandnz.com/visit/events/whats-on/sports/rugby-league/return-nz-v-tonga
For all my COVID-19 posts see:
https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/tag/coronavirus/
For the time capsule (before April), see:
https://covidodyssey.wordpress.com/
https://covidodyssey2022.wordpress.com/
Maybe play a modified COVID version of this song?
elvis presley – blue suede shoes – YouTube
I could modify all the song but don’t have the energy
e.g.
Now Go, cat, go = Now Go, COVID, go.
Well it’s, one for the vaccine,
Two for the woe,
Three to get ready,
Now Go, COVID, go.
. . .
Challenge:
Who can write the best COVID version of this Elvis song?
The WordPress WordPrompt for July is PLAY?
https://wordpress.com/tag/wordprompt
Maybe use Yesterday instead for your song to modify and play:
Yesterday
All my trouble seemed so far away
Now it looks as though COVID’s here to stay
Oh, I grieve for yesterday
Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey 