![Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey](https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/animation_500_kcijq1n6.gif)
COVID-19 case numbers continue to rise in New Zealand.
We hope that case numbers will peak very soon.
We had 82 cases yesterday.
Case numbers can be estimated using the formula
C(d) = 1.16 x SQRT(2)^d
where ^ means ‘to the power of’ and
d is the number of days from 10 August 2021.
We modify this formula below and obtain estimates up to Wednesday 1 September:
In the unlikely event that the estimates above are correct, we could have over 1000 cases on Wednesday 1 September.
Here is the PDF version:
It is always unwise to extrapolate!
Hopefully case numbers will start dropping today.
Our adjusted formula becomes:
C(d) = 1.16 x SQRT(2)^d if d<16
C1(d) = C(d) x 0.9328 x 0.8858 ^d1 if d>15
where d1 is the number of days after d = 16 (Thursday 26 August).
Will case numbers follow the graph below? I hope not.
We hope that Lockdown Level 4 will see case numbers peak or start declining today.
What do you think?
Green Bottles, Alan's Ark & COVID Odyssey: Alan Grace's vir[tu]al journey 
One Comment Add yours