COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 17 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ Will the total exceed 1500 cases?

We estimate a new range for the current Delta outbreak in New Zealand to be 1329 to 1517 cases.

We have previously estimated the total number of cases for the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand to be in the range 940 to 1073 cases. See:

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 14 ~ Estimating total 2021 Cases ~ The range still appears to be 940 to 1073 cases

As in the 2020 graph, in the link above, the first column was a paired total of the next two days’ cumulative total. e.g. 1073 = 511 + 562.

We saw a potential peak on Day 27 or Day 28.

If we assume the midpoint is on Day 27 (28 August), we used this column to estimate the total number of cases in this outbreak to be in the range 940 to 1073 cases.

The number of cases was 1108 yesterday and today is 1123 cases.

Note that the Day numbers now have been renumbered starting on the day the first case was identified (Day 1 is now 17 August). Day 27 (28 August) is now Day 12.

We now multiply our previous range estimate by the estimated daily growth of r = SQRT(2) early in the outbreak and obtain the new range 1329 to 1517 cases.

NZCases2021Sep23

You may like to look at the PDF version:

NZCases2021Sep23

This means the number of cases in this Delta outbreak may exceed the early 2020 outbreak total of 1504 cases.

For definitions, please see:

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