COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 11 ~ Delta variant ~ Will NZ Cases exceed last year?

The total number of cases in this outbreak in New Zealand is likely to exceed the the total in the outbreak early in 2020 if the midpoint is in September.

Update. See:

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be?

Yesterday the number of new cases rose to 75 after dropping to around 50 new cases in each of the previous two days.

In 2020 there was a daily increase (growth) of 40% (factor r = 1.4) for several days before lockdown.

In 2021 there was a daily factor of r = SQRT(2) for several days after lockdown.

NZCasesDelta1Sep

Note the New Cases column is the difference of the numbers in the Total Cases column.

In 2020 we had a total of 1504 cases.

We may have over 1500 cases in the 2021 Delta variant outbreak if the midpoint is in September.

We already have a total of 687 cases and the latest number of new cases rose again to 75 new cases yesterday.

It appeared two days ago that we had reached the midpoint.

This is no longer evident.

See:

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 10 ~ Delta variant ~ Analysis

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=windup

Abecedarian

For image see:
https://randomnoodling.blogspot.com/2017/09/poetry-friday-abecedarian_28.html

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