COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 14 ~ Estimating total 2021 Cases ~ The range still appears to be 940 to 1073 cases

We have estimated the total number of cases for the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand to be in the range 940 to 1073 cases. See:

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be?

NZCases2021Sep14

You may like to look at the PDF version:

NZCases2021Sep14

Despite a brief rise in cases in the last few days, the total number of cases still appears to be within the range estimated.

We currently have a total of 970 cases and only passed 940 cases (955 cases) yesterday.

We note that the midpoint between 940 and 1073 cases is 1007 cases.

We hope the total number of cases in this outbreak will be around this number.

Fortunately we do not appear to have two big peaks like we had last year.

We are still likely to have over 1000 cases in total in this outbreak.

The total number may still be nearer 1100 cases.

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