COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 12 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ What will the total be?

Since there were only 20 new cases in New Zealand yesterday (4 September) we revise our estimate for the total number of cases in this outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19.

First it is useful to look at the outbreak in New Zealand in early 2020.

Please look at this post:

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 5 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ Where will the midpoint be?

Below is the 2021 data:

You may find the PDF easier to read:

NZCases2021Graph

As in the 2020 graph, the first column is a paired total of the next two days’ cumulative total. e.g. 1073 = 511 + 562.

We see a peak on Day 27 or Day 28.

If we assume the midpoint is on Day 27 (28 August), we use this column to estimate the total number of cases in this outbreak to be in the range 940 to 1073 cases.

The number of new cases declined quickly to 20 new cases yesterday.

Consequently, although we expect a long tail, even this estimate (940 to 1073 total cases) may be high.

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