COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 6 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ A simpler formula

We have developed a simpler formula for estimating the number of cases in New Zealand for the current COVID-19 Delta variant outbreak.. Our formula is:

C = r^d

where

r = 1.429

and

d = the number of days since 10 August 2021.

NZCasesDeltar

Here is the PDF version:

NZCases2021r

The effective reproduction rate (Re) is estimated to be 6.3.

This suggests Ro could be at least 6.5. One person may on average infect at least 6.5 other people.

However this estimate for Ro could be very low. This value has been calculated under Lockdown Level 4 in New Zealand.

We have previously estimated Ro to be in the range 9 to 12.7 for the current Delta variant of COVID-19.

i.e. One person could on average infect 9 to 12.7 other people over a 10-day period without isolation/quarantine had New Zealand not gone quickly into Lockdown Level 4.

Also see:

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 15 ~ Executive summary ~ Our formula for Ro

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=winter+warning+nz

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=windup

Shared Posts (Pingbacks)

2 Comments Add yours

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s