COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 6 ~ Estimating the number of 2021 Cases ~ A simpler formula

We have developed a simpler formula for estimating the number of cases in New Zealand for the current COVID-19 Delta variant outbreak.. Our formula is:

C = r^d


r = 1.429


d = the number of days since 10 August 2021.


Here is the PDF version:


The effective reproduction rate (Re) is estimated to be 6.3.

This suggests Ro could be at least 6.5. One person may on average infect at least 6.5 other people.

However this estimate for Ro could be very low. This value has been calculated under Lockdown Level 4 in New Zealand.

We have previously estimated Ro to be in the range 9 to 12.7 for the current Delta variant of COVID-19.

i.e. One person could on average infect 9 to 12.7 other people over a 10-day period without isolation/quarantine had New Zealand not gone quickly into Lockdown Level 4.

Also see:

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 15 ~ Executive summary ~ Our formula for Ro

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