COVID-19 Worldwide in 2020~ How many people may one person infect on average? What can we expect when Ro = r^2.5?

We considered in the last post that Ro = r ^ 2.5 where r is a daily increase in case numbers for a number of days. In New Zealand in the initial outbreak r = 1.4 and hence we estimate now that Ro = 1.4 ^ 2.5. See:

COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ Is Ro close to r^2.5?

We believe Ro = r ^ 2.5 will work for all outbreaks of any infectious disease.

In 2020 we used data from up to 6 August 2020 from over 170 countries/regions worldwide to calculate Ro using our formula at the time. We now update those calculations.

Estimates for r were calculated in an excel 2010 workbook and checked for a number of countries.

A year later in August 2021 using data from 6 August 2021

We look at cases per million people for the 31 countries with over one million cases on 6 August 2021 and compare the results estimated for the daily rate of increase, r, estimated a year earlier on 6 August 2020.

We have looked at the spread of COVID-19 throughout the world early in 2020. We looked at case numbers up to 6 August 2020. A year on from the cut-off date in our original dataset, we combined our results with the latest cases (6 August 2021) for all 31 countries with over 1,000,000 cases.

Update: China is not included because by 6 August 2021 China claimed to have less than 100,000 cases and even by the end of 2022 China acknowledged having less than 500,000 cases. See:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

See:

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 3 ~ COVID-19 in 2020 vs 2021 ~ Cases per million people

Our updated calculations this month in August 2023 for the top countries are below:

Note that r# is simply an updated estimate for r (based on the estimate for r).

Note: Rankings probably come from values of r here (from the above post):

Reminder: We have now used r^2.5 to estimate Ro:

See:

COVIDWorldAllCasesCPM

Click to access covidworldallcasescpmr.pdf

Click to access covidworldallcasescpmcodesall-3.pdf

Here is the complete list of countries
(if there is insufficient data, Ro = 1 below):

COVIDWorldAllCases2020

COVIDWorldAllCases2020Alpha

The PDF above is an alphabetical list of countries:

For background see:

COVID Odyssey: Vir[tu]al World Tour ~ How many people can one person infect in your country?

COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 15 ~ Executive summary ~ Our formula for Ro

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 4 ~ Is Ro 6 to 7.8 in early 2020?

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 41 Post #968~ Worldwide windup~ More simulations to confirm our formula

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 3 ~ COVID-19 in 2020 vs 2021 ~ Cases per million people

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