COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ May Ro be at least r^2.5?

Given a daily increase of r early in an outbreak we consider if Ro is at least r^2.5.

In our previous we obtained this graph:

COVIDgraph1

We now add the graph of r^2.5

We see this light blue curve is close to the red curve.

We consider that Ro is at least r^2.5.

Ro may still be around the original dark blue curve (our formula).

Early in 2020 when COVID-19 (Coronavirus) first broke out in New Zealand, there was a daily increase of r = 1.4 which matched case numbers for several days.

From this we obtain a low estimate for R0 to be 1.4^2.5 = 2.3191, very close to 2.32 estimated.

One person may infect at least 2.32 others over a ten-day period.

For background please see my previous post:

COVID-19~ Refining estimates for Ro~ How many people may one person infect on average?

We have always found that a daily increase of r = 1.4 for estimating COVID-19 cases in New Zealand works well up until the day after Lockdown Level 4 started at 11.59 pm on 25 March 2020:

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