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COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 28 Post #955~ NZ COVID-19 Poll results~ When will total case numbers double to 50,000 cases?

Posted by AlanGraceNZ on

The total number of COVID-19 cases in New Zealand has now exceeded 25,000 cases. How soon do you think this number will double to 50,000? Which choice is the best answer below? See: https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/2022/02/18/covid-odyssey-nz-new-year-fear-24-post-951-nz-covid-19-new-community-cases-yesterday-more-than-total-in-first-2020-outbreak/

The above question was asked in an NZ social media Poll in Neighbourly. Responses could be made by members of Neighbourly in Titirangi (Auckland) and 13 neighbouring suburbs.

Note: Total case numbers are all the cases from the start of the first outbreak in New Zealand in 2020.

We find what we consider the best answer.

Below are the Poll results:

Cases50000PollResults

See:
https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67427123

Below shows total case numbers just before the start of the poll (18 February 2022):

NZCasesWorldometer2020

Below are the average number of cases required to achieve the total of 25,000 cases:

Cases25000

We see that an average of 1500 to 1600 cases will achieve what we need by the end of the first week in March (7 March).

This (Option 2) is certainly achievable. We have had over 1,900 cases in each of the last two days. See:
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items

Let us consider Option 1.

This by the end of February would require an average of 2,500 cases each day over 10 days.

While this may be achievable, we consider this less likely than the second option.

We may reach 3,000 or 5,000 or more cases by the end of February.

We still consider 25,000 cases by the end of February less likely than 25,000 cases by 7 March.

Denote the options as A, B, C, D, E, F.

We rank the best options as B, A, C, D, E, F.

Give yourself:

6 points if you chose Option B;

5 points if you chose Option A;

4 points if you chose Option C;

3 points if you chose Option D;

2 points if you chose Option E;

1 point if you chose Option F.

Also see:

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 29 Post #956~ NZ COVID-19 ~ More community cases announced today than for all of 2020

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