COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 9 Post #936~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 25% to 30%+ higher than Re?

In this post we use case numbers for the 2020 New Zealand outbreak of the original COVID-19 variant to estimate Ro.

This post has been superseded. For updates see:

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 10 Post #937~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 20% higher than Re?

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 11 Post #938~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 30% higher than Re?

We found that case numbers may potentially double in a two-day period.

In the previous post we used actual case numbers for the Omicron variant in New Zealand to estimate Ro.

We found that case numbers may potentially triple in a two-day period.

To estimate Ro (the average number of people one person may infect without isolation over a 10-day infectious period), we need to estimate (project) the number of people a case may infect if the case had not been isolated.

Re is the effective Reproduction number (with isolation).

Reminder: The tables below have been superseded.

OM5

For background see:

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 8 Post #935~ NZ Omicron: Estimating Ro

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/cover-photo/

We follow the same process for the original 2020 COVID-19 outbreak in New Zealand.

We obtained:

COVID2020

We refine our calculations using a factor of 1.4:

COVID202025

We note that for both variants, Ro was 25% to 30%+ higher than Re.

Fortunately the estimates for Ro are still within our ranges.

OmicronChart

TableRe2021C

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