In this post we use case numbers for the 2020 New Zealand outbreak of the original COVID-19 variant to estimate Ro.
This post has been superseded. For updates see:
We found that case numbers may potentially double in a two-day period.
In the previous post we used actual case numbers for the Omicron variant in New Zealand to estimate Ro.
We found that case numbers may potentially triple in a two-day period.
To estimate Ro (the average number of people one person may infect without isolation over a 10-day infectious period), we need to estimate (project) the number of people a case may infect if the case had not been isolated.
Re is the effective Reproduction number (with isolation).
Reminder: The tables below have been superseded.
For background see:
We follow the same process for the original 2020 COVID-19 outbreak in New Zealand.
We refine our calculations using a factor of 1.4:
We note that for both variants, Ro was 25% to 30%+ higher than Re.
Fortunately the estimates for Ro are still within our ranges.