COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 11 Post #938~ NZ COVID-19: Can Ro be 30% higher than Re?

In this post we revisit theoretical case numbers for the OMICRON COVID-19 variant in New Zealand to estimate Ro. We assume a daily increase in case numbers of r = SQRT(3) without isolation and calculate what value of r will produce this result with isolation. We use Goal Seek in Excel to find that r = 1.6 works well.

In a previous post we used actual case numbers for the Omicron variant in New Zealand to estimate Ro.

We found that case numbers may potentially triple in a two-day period. i.e. r = SQRT(3).

To estimate Ro (the average number of people one person may infect without isolation over a 10-day infectious period), we need to estimate (project) the number of people a case may infect if the case had not been isolated.

We assume a daily increase in case numbers of r = SQRT(3) without isolation and calculate what value of r will produce this with isolation.

Re is the effective Reproduction number (with isolation).

For background see:

Welcome

We use Goal Seek in Excel to find that r = 1.6 works well.

We obtain these tables:

OM13

OM11

We see that Ro is more than 30% above Re.

TableRe2021C

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