COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 20 Post #947~ COVID-19 Omicron: Transmissibility~ Are 100 new cases possible ten days after infection?

Each Omicron case may mean 100 other new cases (even with isolation) on the tenth day after infection. Another 10 days later could mean 10,000 (100 x again) new cases on the last day.

We could end up with a total of 240 cases on the tenth day after infection.

Look at the table below. Consider r = SQRT(3), [~1.732].

For this daily increase (r), cases may triple over a two day period.

Starting with 10 cases on Day 0, we see on Day 10 we have potentially 1,027 new cases. i.e. each case on Day 0 may generate 100 new cases on Day 10.

TableVariantsP1b

This PDF may be easier to read:

CasesRoCase10P1

We look at how realistic this estimate may be.

First consider the original early 2020 outbreak of COVID-19 in New Zealand.

We had the following case numbers:

nzdata

Look at the figures for 26 March.

We had a total of 283 cases including 78 new cases.

Our estimate was 289 cases, with 82 new cases on Day 10.

Our figures are comparable. See r = 1.4 in the tables.

We have produced the following chart for estimation ranges for Ro.

ChartVariants4

Re =12.73 (corresponding to r = SQRT(3)) is in the intersection of Delta and Omicron.

For this value of r, cases may triple over a two day period.

Fortunately this has not happened over an extended period of days.

Also see:

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 19 Post #946~ COVID-19 Variants: New Ro estimates

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