2,522 new community cases of COVID-19 in New Zealand have just been announced today. See:
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/rapid-antigen-testing-auckland-2522-community-cases-covid-19-100-hospital
This is more than the total number of cases (2,162) in 2020 in New Zealand.
See:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand/
This makes it more likely that we may reach 50,000 cases by the end of February.
We still think a total of 50,000 cases is more likely to occur in the first week of March (by March 7). However the chances are coming closer to even whether this will occur in February. See:
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