12,000 more community cases
Steeply upwards the total races
5 deaths yesterday too
This is not just the flu
A future bleak peak the country faces
26 February 2022
Yesterday New Zealand reached over 50,000 cases since early 2020. On 25/2 there were 12,011 community cases. Who would have thought cases numbers would almost have doubled every day for the past three days? 5 deaths yesterday too.
13,606 community cases have been reported today. At least case numbers are not currently almost doubling. Will the “doubling” trend continue tomorrow? See:
If the trend had continued today we may have had 22,925 cases.
Over two days new case numbers have increased by a factor of
12,011 / 3,297 = 3.643
This equates to a daily increase of
r = SQRT(3.643)
Case numbers are almost doubling daily over the last three days.
We obtain this table:
We want the total number of cases to also increase by a factor of r daily.
We have seen that if the total number of cases increase by a factor of r daily then new cases also increase by r. See:
Using the calculations below we also get:
Let T[i] and C[i] be respectively the Total number of cases and the number of new cases on Day i where i = 0 on 22 February.
We only need to prove
T = C / (r – 1)
T = T + C
rT = T + C
T ( r – 1 ) = C
T = C / ( r – 1)
Fortunately there were only 13,606 community cases reported today.
There may have been almost 23,000 cases if the trend had continued.
What may happen tomorrow?