COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 32 Post #959~ NZ COVID-19: 12,011 community cases yesterday~ When will the curve flatten?

New Normal?

12,000 more community cases
Steeply upwards the total races
5 deaths yesterday too
This is not just the flu
A future bleak peak the country faces

Alan Grace
26 February 2022

Yesterday New Zealand reached over 50,000 cases since early 2020. On 25/2 there were 12,011 community cases. Who would have thought cases numbers would almost have doubled every day for the past three days? 5 deaths yesterday too.

13,606 community cases have been reported today. At least case numbers are not currently almost doubling. Will the “doubling” trend continue tomorrow? See:
https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/13606-community-cases-covid-19-263-hospital-5-icu-more-31000-boosters-administered

If the trend had continued today we may have had 22,925 cases.

23-Feb  3,297
24-Feb  6,137
25-Feb 12,011

Over two days new case numbers have increased by a factor of

12,011 / 3,297 = 3.643

This equates to a daily increase of

r = SQRT(3.643)

= 1.908667

Case numbers are almost doubling daily over the last three days.

We obtain this table:

Cases3Days

We want the total number of cases to also increase by a factor of r daily.

We have seen that if the total number of cases increase by a factor of r daily then new cases also increase by r. See:

COVID Odyssey: NZ New Year Fear 27 Post #954~ NZ COVID-19 ~ If the total number of cases increase by r daily then new cases also increase by r

Using the calculations below we also get:

CasesTotal3Days

Let T[i] and C[i] be respectively the Total number of cases and the number of new cases on Day i where i = 0 on 22 February.

Cases3DayFormulae

We only need to prove

T[0] = C[1] / (r – 1)

We have

T[1]   = T[0] + C[1]

rT[0] = T[0] + C[1]

T[0] ( r – 1 ) = C[1]

T[0] = C[1] / ( r – 1)

Fortunately there were only 13,606 community cases reported today.

There may have been almost 23,000 cases if the trend had continued.

What may happen tomorrow?

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