We look at cases per million people for the 31 countries with over one million cases on 6 August 2021 and compare the results estimated for the daily rate of increase, r, estimated a year earlier on 6 August 2020.
We have looked at the spread of COVID-19 throughout the world early in 2020. We looked at case numbers up to 6 August 2020. A year on from the cut-off date in our original dataset, we combined our results with the latest cases (6 August 2021) for all 31 countries with over 1,000,000 cases.
We looked at case numbers for 185 countries, eight which we could not analyse due to insufficient case numbers.
Our values calculated for r for China and New Zealand were similar to those already estimated.
For background you may like to look at my post:
Ro is the average number of people one person with COVID-19 may infect when there is no quarantine or isolation. Our simulations have verified that the formula below for Ro is theoretically correct.
Note: r is a daily rate of increase (growth factor) calculated over a 5-day period for each country, and C[d] is the number of Cases on Day d of the outbreak for each country.
We assume that infectivity decreases daily at a rate of 1/r.
Our 2021 data comes from:
Below WRank is the ranking by the 2021 number of Cases on 6 August 2021.
C/M means cases per Million people. We see that four of the top five C/M are between 107,000 and 109,000 cases per million. i.e. around 11% of the population for these countries and almost 15.6% for the top country.