COVID Odyssey: Winter Windup 11 ~ COVID-19 ~ Daily decline in infectivity

We have assumed that case numbers increase at a daily rate of r and infectivity decreases daily at a rate of 1/r.

This simplifies the formula. However it is possible that infectivity decreases daily at a different rate.

Below is a graph showing various rates:

COVIDrGraph

Below is data for the graph.

Note: values have been scaled so that the total is 1 in each column.
This means that we can consider each value a probability.

COVIDrScaled

It is possible that for a daily rate of increase of r = SQRT(2), we could have a daily decline of infectivity of 1/2.

However a daily decline of infectivity of 1/SQRT(2) gives us a lower estimate for Ro since fewer cases occur earlier on and hence there is a slower spread.

Prior to scaling, we obtained these values:

COVIDr

We also obtained cumulative values:

COVIDrCum

This enabled the use of random numbers in simulations and the use of lookup tables to estimate the day a case was infected.

We have used the table and formula below to estimate Ro.

TableRe2021C

Also see:

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=windup

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