COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 8 ~ NZ COVID-19 Vaccinations~ Can New Zealand have 90% fully vaccinated by year end?

We first assume that New Zealand could have 90% of the population over 12 fully vaccinated by the end of 2021. We are not saying that this may be possible but look at some targets that may need to be reached if 90% full vaccination is achievable.

At the end of September (Month 1) New Zealand had 38% of the population over 12 fully vaccinated.

We scaled our calculations in a previous post to achieve 90% vaccination by the end of December (Month 4).

We produce this scaled graph:

Vacc38GraphScaled

We start with this table:
Note: x(f-x) should be v(f-v) throughout

Vacc38Table

We scale using the values for December so that a 90% full vaccination level is achieved at the end of December 2021.

We obtain the table below (only 38% remains unchanged) :

Vacc38TableScaled

The scaled values are obtained by dividing the values in each row (except 38%) by the value for December in the first table and then multiplying by 90 (to obtain a 90% vaccination level by the end of December).

On 10 October, New Zealand had 49% fully vaccinated:

VaccNZ12Oct

For the latest vaccination level see:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=NZL

For background to the calculations (before scaling), please see:

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 7 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 3 results~ When will New Zealand have 90% fully vaccinated?

Which curve do you think will best produce the 90% vaccination level interim targets if 90% full vaccination can be achieved by the end of the year?

We reproduce the graph below:

Vacc38GraphScaled

This PDF may be easier to read:

COVID38Dec90

For best choice see:

COVID Odyssey: Spring Spruce up 9 ~ NZ COVID-19 Delta Poll 4 results~ Which curve best shows targets to achieve 90% fully vaccinated this year?

You may also like to look at these previous polls:
https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67008287
https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67017036
https://www.neighbourly.co.nz/public/auckland/titirangi/message/67022662

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