COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 15 ~ Delta variant outbreak 2021 ~ Estimating Ro and Re

We estimate under the current Lockdown Level 4 in Auckland one person may infect 6 to 6.3 other people in New Zealand in the current Delta variant outbreak of COVID-19.

Without lockdown we have estimated one person with the Delta variant of COVID-19 may infect 9 to 12.75 other people. See:

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 6 ~ Ro ~ Estimates for the Alpha and Delta variants

Lockdown has lowered the range to the range to the 5 to 8 range for the original 2020 COVID-19 outbreak.

Fortunately there were only 14 new cases announced today, all in Auckland.

For definitions and values for r please see:

Welcome

Please look at the table below:

NZCases2021Sep15r

You can see that  both r = SQRT(2) and r = 1.429 provide good estimates for the total number of cases from 21 to 25 August 2021.

These values for r correspond to Re = 6.047 and Re = 6.308.

This gives us the above range in New Zealand for the delta variant under Lockdown Level 4.

This PDF may be easier to view:

NZCases2021Sep15r

Clearly by definition Ro is greater than Re. See:

COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 9 ~ Ro > Re ~ How much greater is Ro?

Without Lockdown we may have potentially had 15,000 cases by the end of August and potentially the whole country could have been infected by now.

See the last two columns in the above table.

Below are graphs:

NZCases2021Sep15

NZCases2021Sep15

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