COVID Odyssey: Worldwide Winter Windup 5 ~ Revised estimates for Re worldwide

We revise our estimates for Ro worldwide.

Previously we had the ranking below (see r1 and Re1 columns) for the 2020 outbreak:

COVIDRankedWorldrOLD

The above was calculated using:

RoFormula

Note that n = 10 days and  r[d] is a daily rate of increase (growth factor) calculated over the next 5 days starting on day d for each country, and C[d] is the total number of Cases on Day d of the outbreak.

The calculation for r gave equal weighting to r[d] and r[d+1]. i.e. 0.5 weighting for both.

We have discovered that for the Delta variant weights of 0.25 and 0.75 give better results for New Zealand. See:

COVID Odyssey: Winter Warning NZ 13 ~ Delta variant ~ Estimating r, Re and Ro

The revised calculations are (only the line with the weights has changed):

R0Formula

This produced the following new ranking (see the r2 and Re2 columns):

COVIDRankedWorldrNEW

The PFS below are more extensive and may be easier to read:

NZCOVIDWorldAllCasesCPMrOLD

NZCOVIDWorldAllCasesCPMrNew

NZCOVIDWorldAllCasesCPMALPHA3

NZCOVIDWorldAllCasesCPMrOLDdiff

We note that the values for r1 and r2 may not always occur on the same day. See:

Chinar

Look at the last two columns which correspond to r1 and r2. Also see:

NZCOVIDWorldAllCasesCPMrNewDate

We note that New Zealand now has a new value of r = 1.400890.

We have seen that r = 1.4 fits New Zealand data well in the early 2020 outbreak:

NZData

China now has a new value r = 1.500985. This is very close to what we have estimated (r = 1.5):

COVID Odyssey: China Odyssey ~ Comparing cases in China with New Zealand in 2020 ~ How many people may one person infect on average?

We recommend using the new calculation weights and new ranking.

Note that our estimate for Ro ranging from 5 to 8 in the original 2020 COVID-19 outbreak has not changed.

Our estimate for Ro for the current Delta variant outbreak ranging from 9 to 12.7 also remains unchanged.

Also see:

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=worldwide+winter+windup

https://aaamazingphoenix.wordpress.com/?s=windup

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