The Man Like A Dog With A Bone!
There was once a fella called Grace
Who worked at a furious pace,
Using maths so darned hard
And poems like a bard
He inspired the whole human race
With Covid running amok
And humans all running on luck
Alan showed Ro
Was double WHO thought
And experts were all left dumbstruck!
Incensed by this change to Ro
*WHO summoned Grace to a court
Grace called Coony McCain
A man of great fame
And statistician wholly self-taught
Addressing the court with a smile
McCain produced graphs as his style
“It’s clear as can be
The experts, you see
Are clearly out by a mile!”
16 June 2021
Note: * fictitious from here in the poem
Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denotes the Reproduction rate for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation.
Ro is the number of people one person may infect.
We have estimated Ro in New Zealand between 4.1 and 6.25 in 2020. See:
COVID Odyssey: Fall Flashback ~ Summary 2020 revisited ~ How many people may one person infect on average? – COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey (wordpress.com)
Ro for COVID-19 as initially estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) was between 1.4 and 2.5: “Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary Ro estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented.”
We have looked at the following simulation several times showing the outspread of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) from 5 to over 360 people in 5 cycles with Re = 2.6:
Source: New York Times.
How can a Coronavirus out-spread from 5 to 368 people in 5 Cycles (Credit: The New York Times)?
If 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others each, then 5 people could be sick after 1 Cycle, 18 people after 2 Cycles, 52 people after 3 Cycles and so on. See: