# COVID Odyssey: How many people may one person infect in early 2020? ~ The Man Like A Dog With A Bone!

The Man Like A Dog With A Bone!

There was once a fella called Grace
Who worked at a furious pace,
Using maths so darned hard
And poems like a bard
He inspired the whole human race

With Covid running amok
And humans all running on luck
Alan showed Ro
Was double WHO thought
And experts were all left dumbstruck!

Incensed by this change to Ro
*WHO summoned Grace to a court
Grace called Coony McCain
A man of great fame
And statistician wholly self-taught

Addressing the court with a smile
McCain produced graphs as his style
“It’s clear as can be
The experts, you see
Are clearly out by a mile!”

Borty McNabb
16 June 2021

Note: * fictitious from here in the poem

Ro (R0; R-Zero; R-Nought) denotes the Reproduction rate for COVID-19 without any quarantine or isolation.

Ro is the number of people one person may infect.

We have estimated Ro in New Zealand between 4.1 and 6.25 in 2020. See:
COVID Odyssey: Fall Flashback ~ Summary 2020 revisited ~ How many people may one person infect on average? – COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey (wordpress.com)

Ro for COVID-19 as initially estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) was between 1.4 and 2.5: “Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary Ro estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented.”
See:
https://www.who.int/news/item/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

We have looked at the following simulation several times showing the outspread of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) from 5 to over 360 people in 5 cycles with Re = 2.6:

Source: New York Times.

How can a Coronavirus out-spread from 5 to 368 people in 5 Cycles (Credit: The New York Times)?

If 5 people with new coronavirus can impact 2.6 others each, then 5 people could be sick after 1 Cycle, 18 people after 2 Cycles, 52 people after 3 Cycles and so on. See:

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1. AlanGraceNZ says:

Reblogged this on COVID Odyssey by Alan Grace: My vir[tu]al COVID-19 journey and commented:

My response to Borty

There was a stats man McNabb
Whose statistics were quite drab
His first name was Borty
His poems are quite naughty
But his friendship was right fab

The poem in his very first post
Made Borty more famous than his host
His poems though quite naughty
Bought acclaim to Borty
Sad the pseudonym’s owner’s a ghost

It’s said Borty took well his fame
Of his host it’s not said the same
His host is a ghost
Unknown to most
Was Borty really to blame.

In one day it’s said Borty
With his poetry naughty
When his host had reached forty

Was it only his own lack of fame
Was Borty alone only to blame
Or did all friends think
Golf drove him to drink
His host simply was never the same

The real author did never respond
Just sank to the depths of despond
Borty’s host’s a ghost
Unknown to most
Now he’s gone to the great beyond

Alan Grace
17 June 2021

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